Jack Shams
AP Human Geography
10/1/15
The Population Fizzle
The Population Surprise
U.S. Population Drop
Chapter 2: Population
Thoughts and Ruminations
Essay Question- How do the terms population explosion, total fertility rate (TFR), and population distribution used in chapter 2 relate to The Population Fizzle, The Population Surprise, and U.S. Population Drop.
One of the most present topics in today's world is population growth. People have become increasingly worried with the population explosion in the past two centuries. According to Max Singer who states in his article The Population Surprise, "the worlds population has grown from one billion to over six billion in the past two centuries." People believe that the population will continue to grow until our world can't support us any longer, but as one takes a closer look that does not seem to be the case. According to The Population Fizzle by Anne H. Ehrlich, a demographer named Nicholas Eberstadt anticipated the population will stop growing and immediately start to shrink in the year 2050. Eberstadt states that the population size will just surpass 9.4 billion in the year 2050 and then the population will begin to drop quickly due to higher death rates than total fertility rates. Demographers believe that there is a low chance that this variant will be followed.
Even thought this variant has a low chance of being followed Eberstadt makes quite an accurate prediction. With TFR's slowly dropping in areas like the United States the population should peak within the next 50 years and then begin to decrease. While we might not see an immediate and drastic drop off it should begin to happen. According to the article U.S. Population Drop by Derek Thompson, "the U.S. government announced that our birthrate fell to 'another record low' in 2012, following a long, steady slide since the Baby Boom after World War II." The reason fertility rate is dropping is because people are just having less babies compared to past centuries when TFR's were much higher due to instances like WWII.
Even if only the US stays on this path, which it is likely they will not be the only ones, the overall population of the world will begin to drop after a certain point. The reason that the overall population of the world could drop even if only the U.S. has a significant population drop is because of population distribution. Population Distribution is the arrangement or spread of people living in a given area, and North America has the fourth highest population distribution in the world. Connecting those dots, if the U.S.'s population were to take a hit the entire world would feel it due to the large amount of the world's population that lives here.
With all of these points in mind there is truly no exact way to predict how the world's population will change in the future completely accurately. This is because there is no way to see what might happen in the future. If another world war to break out there might be another huge increase in TFR's, causing the population to increase rather than decrease. The only true way one would find out what exactly is going to happen to the worlds population would be to sit back and see what the future centuries bring.
The Indian government wanted to help stop population growth in their country but there were not many options for women who accidentally got pregnant so they began family planning programs in 1965 and then the total fertility rates were cut in half.
http://www.mapsofindia.com/my-india/society/family-planning-in-india-its-history-programmes-importance-and-impact
This map shows the fertility rate in India. The average fertility rate is around 2.4-3.2 With the help of family planning programs that were put in place by the Indian Government the fertility rate was cut in half. If the Indian Government continues to use family planning programs the fertility rate should continue to drop.
The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) seeks to explain the transformation of countries from having high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates. In developed countries this transition began in the eighteenth century and continues today. Less developed countries began the transition later and are still in the midst of earlier stages of the model.
Source of info on the DTM: Rosenberg, Matt. "What Is a Demographic Transition Model?" Web. 3 Oct. 2015.
Video Link: http://youtu.be/q1sIpRuvO6w
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